• Accuracy of Survey by Rico Marbun

    For survey institutions the accuracy of the survey results to be the main capital to gain public trust. The Survey Institute should have credibility, accountability and independence in the publication of the results of its surveys.
    One of the institutions that get appreciation for its accuracy and independence is MEDIA SURVEY NATIONAL (MEDIAN) Rico Marbun's survey institute got appreciation in the form of Blue card from FISIP researcher UI (University of Indonesia).
    DKI Jakarta Election, DKI Jakarta Election.
    So what is the accuracy of Rico Marbun's institution in the election of DKI Jakarta, we will review the track record as follows:

    In the early days of publication in September 2016 until early 2017, MEDIAN releases submitted by Rico Marble Ahok-Djarot in first place. Nevertheless, Rico Marbun said that the current elektabilitas trend of Ahok-Djarot tends to decrease.

    Interestingly, Rico Marbun was able to predict that the Election of DKI will take two rounds, and Ahok-Djarot possibly lose in the second round.

    This prediction is predicted. He said that support for couples has not been able to touch the 30 percent mark, the electability of the Ahok-Djarot couple by 29.8 percent where the 27.8 percent Anies and Agus Harimurti-Sylviana 26.1 percent. With a little time left, then most likely Jakarta elections will take two rounds, explained Rico Marbun at that time.

    According to Rico Marbun, the Ahok-Djarot couple can lose second round, this is because the voice of Ahok-Djarot is still smaller when the votes for Anies and Agus are combined. This conclusion is drawn because of the Origin Not Ahok phenomenon that emerged from the results of the previous MEDIAN surveys.

    As a result, the Election of DKI actually took place two rounds. Ahok-Djarot and Anies Sandi who entered the second round, Ahok-Djarot then defeated.

    Unlike other survey institutes that are missing publications in the second round, the publication of the results of the survey institute Rico Marbun consistently perform publication.

    In april 2017 also one week ahead of voting. Strengthening previous predictions Rico Mabrun predicts Ahok-Djarot will lose in the second round. This prediction is based on ANIS-Sandi, while the one who votes for Ahok-Djarot is only 43.5 percent of voters, and coupled with the fact that It will be very difficult for Ahok-Djarot.

    ⦁ Accuracy of Survey Results

    Not only the results of the survey, the accuracy of the survey institute is also shown when MEDIAN's Quick Count.

    Based on the KPU 'real count' results. MEDIAN quick count results also win Anies-Sandi, almost identical, only difference of number is different with the difference of very small numbers.

    How is the comparison?

    Based on the Real Count of the KPU, Anies-Sandi won by 57.95% while Ahok-Djarot got 42.05% votes. Meanwhile, according to Quick Count results Ahok-Djarot earned 41.99% of votes.

    From the facts that have been described, which is an accurate, independent and accountable survey. Accurate because of the results of his survey successfully describe the real reality. Independent because it is always reliable, and is accountable because the predictions are based on the results of the survey.


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